January 5, 2022 – The latest COVID-19 variant, omicron, could peak as early as this month. The Washington Post reports that multiple infectious-disease experts have created models to forecast the spread of the highly contagious omicron variant and have found that every scenario projected this wave to peak by the end of January.
Justin Lessler, an epidemiology professor at the University of North Carolina who has helped to coordinate a separate coronavirus modeling hub, said, “If it’s not surging in your area, it likely will – and likely will soon. … It’s coming and it’s coming fast.”
Many health experts are hoping that the United States omicron wave will mirror that of the data from South Africa, which showed a steep increase and quick decrease in COVID cases. The Post writes that “one forecast from Columbia University researchers predicts cases could reach their highest levels the week of January 9 and then decline from there. Another from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine estimates infections could top out in late January.”
Health experts are also using hospitalization rates as an important metric to track. Infection rates are important to understand where the virus is spreading and the demographics of the populations most impacted, while hospitalization rates give a better idea of capacity, severity, acuity, and the number of deaths. Early data suggests that omicron is less severe than previous variants, but the volume of new cases could still overwhelm hospitals.