Flu forecasting

November 8, 2023- Fall is here, and that means flu cases are on the rise. Symptoms of the flu such as coughing, body aches, and fever are very similar to those associated with COVID-19, making it more important during flu season for disease prevention. As health professionals continue to navigate the impacts of COVID-19 on respiratory season, prevention and forecasting tools are helping health systems prepare for flu season.

Influenza (flu) is a contagious respiratory illness that infects the nose and throat and is spread through tiny droplets when an infected individual coughs, sneezes, or talks. The flu causes symptoms including fever, cough, sore throat, runny nose, muscle aches, fatigue and more. Each season, anywhere from 3% to 11% of the population is infected with the flu, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and approximately 8% of the U.S. population gets sick from the flu in an individual season.

Flu infection is highly contagious and very common, especially in children and adults. These groups are more likely to develop a symptomatic flu infection, however the immunocompromised, young children, and older adults are more likely to develop a severe infection that can lead to hospitalization. 

Influenza places a large disease burden on the U.S. each year. An estimated 9 million flu illnesses were reported in the 2021-2022 flu season, according to the CDC. Mitigation measures intended to prevent the spread of COVID-19 may have been a result of last season’s lower flu case numbers. In the 2019-2020 season, prior to the pandemic, flu cases were much higher, with an estimated 36 million flu-related illnesses, 16 million flu-related medical visits, 390,000 flu-related hospitalizations, and 25,000 flu-related deaths, according to a CDC research study.

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