By Mark Van Sumeren
March 7, 2022 – As the Covid outbreak in the United States withers, the virus unleashed its suffering elsewhere.
Prior efforts by some countries to minimize outbreaks left residents vulnerable to the highly virulent Omicron strain. Strong vaccination efforts have proven insufficient to stop transmission, although they seem to have lessened disease severity.
For instance, a major Covid outbreak stunned Hong Kong last week. Cases and deaths surged, with nearly five times as many cases reported last week than a week earlier. Tragically, more than four times as many Hong Kongers died last week than the previous seven days.
In some ways, Hong Kong’s experience highlights the limits of a strict containment strategy exacerbated by inadequate vaccinations. This containment strategy previously protected the country, as the virus reached only one-fourth as many residents per capita as in the United States since the pandemic’s beginning. But it left people vulnerable. Notably, Hong Kong vaccinated the general population slightly better than the U.S. but reportedly did not reach the elderly to the same degree.
Covid also circumvented strict containment efforts in New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea. However, these countries have outpaced Hong Kong’s vaccinations. Indeed, Singapore and South Korea fully vaccinated nine of every ten residents. Yet like Hong Kong, each country ranked in the top ten globally in cases per capita last week.
More concerning, Covid shook several countries last week despite their strong vaccination rates and natural immunity levels. Brunei, Iceland, and the Netherlands built “immunity walls” from this two-pronged approach. Nonetheless, these walls did not prevent these countries from enduring Covid cases per capita last week among the ten highest globally.
Fortunately, the combination of high prior infections and strong vaccination rates seem to have staved off severe conditions, as death rates remain relatively low.
Covid paints a rosier picture in the United States.
Two weeks ago, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) introduced its revised “Community Levels” tool for assessing Covid’s status in every county nationwide. Before this revision, the CDC deemed that most of the country was at high risk of Covid. The first revised Community impact report argued otherwise, with 70% of the population living in low or medium-risk areas.
Merely a week later, the CDC upped its assessment further. As of its latest update, 90% of the population resides in low or medium-risk communities.
The new Community Levels model emphasizes Covid’s demand on our nation’s hospitals. Here, the news is encouraging. Hospital admissions and census due to Covid have fallen sharply since mid-January – by 80% for admissions and 75% for census. Last week, both measures reached their lowest level seen since last July.
Current infection rates represent the second part of the Community Levels model. Reported cases fell last week, continuing a seven-week trend. During this time, cases plunged 90%. Experts predict cases will drop another 60% in the next three weeks. Before this expected decline, we had not witnessed case rates this low since last July.
Fewer Americans died with Covid last week than any seven days this year. In the last week alone, deaths declined by 25%. According to a recent expert forecast, these could drop another 50% in the next three weeks.