May 24, 2021 – The COVID-19 pandemic waned further in the United States last week, with critical measures approaching pandemic-long lows. Meanwhile, the virus rages across South America.
- Weekly new cases in the U.S. fell to the lowest level since June 12-18, 2020. At the current decay, the case rate will revert to levels unseen since March 2020 within a week.
- Deaths with COVID-19 are now as low as they have been in 44 weeks. Except for a brief seven days in early July, the U.S. has not seen so few deaths since the end of March 2020.
- The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients is now lower than all but three days since last July. (Before July, several states did not report COVID-19 inpatient census). Within a few days, we will likely reach a new low.
Then-President Trump declared COVID-19 a national emergency on March 13, 2020. Although there were few cases compared to later peaks, new cases were surging. In three weeks, the number of new daily cases increased one thousand fold.
Within two weeks of the emergency declaration, 500 people were dying with COVID-19 each day. Three weeks later, the daily death rate had increased six fold.
By most measures, the virus peaked in the U.S. in January. New case rates peaked on January 11, hospital census on January 12, and deaths on January 26.
Benefits of a Robust Vaccine Effort
A robust vaccination program brought the pandemic under control in the United States. Sandra Lindsay, a critical care nurse from Northwell Long Island Jewish Medical Center, received the first Pfizer vaccine dose on December 13, 2020. Since then, the U.S. has administered 284 million doses. This quantity is enough for every eligible American to receive a shot.
Of course, senior citizens stood first in line for the vaccine. Responding to a greater risk of severe infection, seniors leaped to get immunized. Three of every four seniors have received their full complement of vaccines. Only one in eight have yet to get jabbed at all.
Younger adults were invited late to the party and have been less enthusiastic about participating. To date, only one in four non-senior adults has received all the required COVID-19 shots. Nearly half have avoided getting any shot at all.
Hospitalizations Declining
Vaccination rates have impacted hospital use. Before the vaccines had time to immunize anyone, there were five times as many hospitalized COVID-19 patients as there are today.
At that time, senior citizens made up half of all COVID-19 inpatients. One in five inpatients was 18-to-49 years old; one in four was 50-to-64.
Now, four of every ten COVID-19 patients are 18-49 years old. Only one of every four are 65 years or older.
A senior citizen was ten times more likely to be in the hospital with COVID-19 in January than today. A person 18-to-49 years old was twice as likely then versus now.
India Sees Slight Improvement; Virus Takes Toll on South America
While the United States is relaxing restrictions and resuming normal activities, the pandemic is extracting a toll in South America.
- Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, French Guiana, Paraguay, and Uruguay each rank among the 15 highest countries globally in new cases per capita over the past week.
- Deaths with COVID-19 are especially alarming in South America. While these countries accounted for one-fifth of new cases globally last week, they reported three of every ten deaths.
India continues to wrestle with the pandemic, although its situation is improving. India accounted for half of all new cases globally last week and a third of all deaths. However, the seven-day average new cases have fallen 14 straight days. New cases are one-third lower now than two weeks ago.
Differences in vaccination rates explain the ongoing challenges in India and South America. The U.S. has administered four times as many doses per capita as South American countries and six times as many as India.
The vaccines are a game-changer in fighting the pandemic. First, they obliterated hospital rates and deaths in the U.S. This effect was most pronounced among the elderly and most vulnerable. Then, the vaccines have continually stood fast against each variant of interest that has emerged globally.
The U.S. has contained the virus and is resuming normal activities. Yet, much of the world lags the U.S. in vaccinating its people. Africa, Asia, Oceania, and South America are vulnerable to infection spread because of low vaccination rates. South America is struggling now. But, other than Carbo Verde and tiny Seychelles in Africa and Bahrain and Maldives in Asia, these continents have kept the virus at bay thus far.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.