March 15, 2021 – Cheryl woke in her hospital room, battling courageously with symptoms of a SARS-CoV-2 infection. That May morning was not unlike the previous fifty-five days, her temperature somewhere between 101 and 104 and pneumonia compromising her lungs. This hospital stay was her third since contracting the novel coronavirus that was sweeping the country.
She was not alone in her suffering, even within her own family. Her husband, both adult sons, and adult daughter, also showed symptoms. Except for one of the sons, each tested positive. Being just six months past chemotherapy, however, Cheryl’s was the most severe infection.
Six hours later, to hear her husband tell the story, convalescent plasma saved her life. She survived her 55-day ordeal.
This family of five is a sliver of the 22 million Americans who have recovered from a confirmed case. The actual number is likely several times higher, according to seroprevalence studies. COVID-19 infected more Americans by some estimates than either candidate received votes in last November’s Presidential election.
This family’s story offers at least two insights for us as we seek a return to normalcy, following twelve grueling months in the virus’ grip: first, perhaps as many as one-in-every three of us have recovered from a fight that none of us sought. We owe a debt of gratitude to the health care providers, the caregivers, and the scientists that made winning this fight possible. We also owe large doses of caring, empathy, and respect to those that fought and won this difficult battle.
The second insight also bears attention: Last Wednesday marked the first anniversary of this family’s initial symptoms. Dad and the two sons continue to have robust antibodies and the daughter, T-cells. Cheryl will seek a T-cell test if her oncologist consents. It is only one family, yet their experience bodes well for long-lasting and robust natural immunity. Scientific studies of this and prior coronaviruses suggest this family’s experience is representative.
What does this mean for our quest for normalcy? A great deal. If 100 million people have natural immunity from a prior infection, we are closer to normalcy or herd immunity.
Models from Covid-19_projections.com and covidest.org estimate that Covid-19 has infected 100 million to 125 million people in the U.S., about one-third of the total population.
Of course, vaccines make up the other half of our strategy for regaining normalcy, and our vaccine effort found another gear this week. More Americans were vaccinated on Thursday than all but one-day before then. On Friday, vaccinations broke that previous high, only to have this record shattered on Saturday and then again on Sunday. At this point, 27% of adults have received at least one dose, and 14% have received two doses. President Biden has called on the states to ensure that all adults have vaccine access by May.
The impact of vaccines and natural immunity becomes more apparent each day: estimated daily infections dropped last week to the lowest level in five months. The percentage of diagnostic tests coming back positive last week was lower than it has been at any time during the pandemic.
However, the impact on severe cases is most important, and the outlook here is even brighter: hospital admissions with Covid-19 like symptoms have dropped steadily since mid-January. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts admissions will continue falling but at an increasingly faster pace as vaccines drive immunity. By the end of April, IHME forecasts Covid-19 hospital admissions to be half what they are today; by mid-May, IHME expects these to drop in half again.
Deaths with coronavirus plunged 20% this week compared to last and 60% compared to mid-January. As with hospital admissions, vaccinations should drive down these numbers further still. By Mother’s Day, IHME predicts we will suffer fewer deaths each day than at any time since late March 2020.
* Story told with permission; Names have been changed for privacy reasons.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.