April 26, 2021 – The presumed fourth infection wave in the United States crested ten days ago. India hasn’t been so fortunate.
End of the Fourth Wave
Fueled by the B117 variant, this fourth wave took hold in the U.S. on March 16. But a robust vaccination effort has kept the spread in check. This wave lasted about a month and peaked only 30% above where it started. By comparison, the third wave lasted four months. It crested 700% higher than where it began.
The 7-day new infection rate has declined ten straight days, falling 18% during that time. Also, the 7-day death rate fell to its lowest point in more than six months.
Gains in hard-hit Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania sparked the U.S. recovery. These states have the highest new infection rates in the country. But each has shown encouraging trends:
- Michigan’s 7-day new infection rate has declined eight straight days and ten of the last 11. This rate dropped 31% in this time.
- New Jersey’s rate declined for the fifth straight day and tenth time in two weeks. New Jersey’s rate dropped 16% in the last two weeks.
- New York’s rate fell for the seventh straight day and twelfth time in the last 13 days. New York’s rate declined 37% in the past two weeks.
- Pennsylvania’s rate dropped for the seventh straight day. This rate declined 21% in the last week.
Hospital COVID-19 census inched up week-over-week. Michigan devotes the highest rate of inpatient beds to COVID-19 patients, four in every 10. Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, and New York each devote at least three of every 10 beds to the care of COVID-19 patients. COVID-19 census in both Michigan and New York declined week-over-week. This census increased week-over-week in Connecticut and Delaware.
Nationwide, 14% of inpatient beds are in use by COVID-19 patients. At its peak in January, this rate rose to 42%.
Robust Vaccine Effort Now Facing Headwinds
The U.S. administered 225 million doses of the three COVID-19 vaccines in the program’s first four months. Prioritizing senior citizens, 81% of seniors have received at least one dose. 67% are fully inoculated.
As of last Monday, every person 16 years and older has access to vaccines. 42% of persons 18 to 64 years old have started the vaccination process—28% are finished.
Yet, the process hit a speed bump ten days ago. Federal authorities paused any J&J/Janssen vaccines on April 16, following reports of blood clotting among women 18 to 59 years old. The government lifted the pause Friday after confirming the rarity of complications. Investigators uncovered fifteen blood clotting complications among 8 million J&J vaccines. Of the 15, seven women remained hospitalized.
Still, the pause already did its damage. Total vaccinations plunged 15% last week, falling to the lowest volume in four weeks. The first doses fell to the lowest level in six weeks.
2.8 million Americans received vaccines on average each day last week. This rate peaked at 4 million on April 11-16.
An Encouraging Outlook for the U.S.
With the demise of the fourth wave, the U.S. may soon reach pandemic-long lows in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. According to the most recent Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections:
- By May 1, there will be fewer daily infections,
- By May 20, there will be fewer COVID-19 hospital admissions,
- By May 27, there will be fewer COVID-19 hospital inpatients, and
- By May 24, there will be fewer deaths with COVID-19 than any time since March 2020.
Challenges Outside the U.S.
While the U.S. benefits from a robust vaccination effort, several other countries are paying a price for their weaker efforts.
New infections outside the U.S. spiked 50% in the last three weeks.
India is suffering the most lately. Its vaccination effort has engaged fewer than 10% of the population. This rate trails even the woeful worldwide average (13%). India’s infection rate increased on 66 straight days. Infections are doubling every nine to 10 days. During the past week, India alone accounted for 37% of all new cases globally.
India’s sizeable unvaccinated population provides a fertile target for the virus to spread. Even with its recent surge, only 1% of the country’s population has encountered a COVID-19 infection.
Turkey has the third highest 7-day new infection rate in the world. Through last Tuesday, this country was tracking like India, with 60 straight days on increasing rates. But infections dropped each of the past four days. The Turks have administered 25 doses per 100 people.
Sweden ranks sixth in new infections per capita. Yet, the Swedes have seen this rate fall 14% over the past 11 days. The Swedes have administered 28 doses per 100 people.
The Netherlands ranks ninth in new infections per capita for the past seven days. This country has seen infections increase 14 of the past 16 days. The Dutch have administered 29 doses per 100 people.
Contrast the situation in these countries with that in Israel and the United Kingdom. Israel has administered 120 doses per 100 people; the U.K., has administered 67 doses per 100 people. Both countries have seen infection rates plunge more than 90% since the beginning of the year. Current rates are among the lowest in the world.
Implications for the Future
The experience outside the U.S. offers lessons for what lies ahead. The U.S. could reach a state of virus containment within the next several weeks. Yet, the virus can do significant damage without robust vaccinations. COVID-19 will likely rage in parts of the world where vaccinations have been slow. Limited vaccinations provide an opportunity for more variants, which could impair the effectiveness of existing vaccines.
The U.S. risks losing containment in the Fall if its vaccine effort falls short. This risk is compounded if the virus isn’t brought under control elsewhere.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.