October 11, 2021 – Relief from the Covid Delta variant, which began in early September, continued last week. Nonetheless, we have a long battle before returning to levels we saw in June.
The following graphics depict the extent of our progress in the last week and the past month.
Briefly:
- The test-positive rate fell to 6.3% last week, one third lower than the rate posted four weeks ago (9.3%)
- New cases reported per day dropped below 100,000 last week, the first time this has occurred since July 29-August 4
- Estimated infections plunged even faster than reported cases – more than 60% in the past four weeks
- Hospital admissions and census related to Covid declined 12-13% week-over-week and by more than one-third in the past four weeks.
- Currently, Covid patients occupy one in five beds nationally
- Death counts eased too. While remaining tragically high, there were 150 fewer deaths each day last week than the prior week.
At the same time, the pace of vaccinations picked up last week. For the first time since the Fourth of July, more than one million vaccines were administered per day, on average, last week. Booster shots set the overall pace, representing more than two of every five doses administered. Still, it is encouraging that nearly two million previously unvaccinated people received their first shots last week.
While Covid hospitalizations are declining, we continue to eye the experience in Idaho, Nevada, Georgia, South Dakota, Delaware, and North Carolina. These states report the highest occupancy rate of Covid patients – each devoting at least one of every three beds to treating Covid patients. Encouragingly, the number of Covid patients declined week-over-week in each of these states except Georgia.
One last cautionary note: as we enter the 2021/22 flu season, we must remain vigilant of the possibility of an early and severe flu season. Last Winter, we benefited from one of the mildest flu seasons in at least fifteen years. This freed clinical resources we desperately needed to care for Covid patients.
We enter this flu season with a flu visit rate higher than we experienced all last Winter. Further, the current rate – despite easing the past few weeks – exceeds that posted during the corresponding week for fourteen of the past fifteen years. The only season when the visit rate was above our current rate proved to be the earliest and one of the most severe seasons we have witnessed (2009/10).
Something we must keep an eye on.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.