August 23, 2021 – A leading national news outlet reported last week that “hospitals nationwide (don’t) have enough staff, beds, or supplies to handle another flood of COVID-19 patients.” Perhaps hyperbole – the acute challenge is concentrated in several states and metropolitan areas but not shared nationwide. Nevertheless, the stress is debilitating. Relief cannot come too soon.
Let’s begin with whether and how long the Delta surge will continue.
Then, we’ll examine which states are seeing their hospitals hardest hit and how soon the stress could diminish.
Lastly, we will explore how the mix of hospital patients by age has changed throughout the pandemic.
The Delta surge took root in the United States in late June. During this time, detected daily infections spiked twelvefold. At one point, these infections increased more than 60% week-over-week. However, the rate of increase has now declined 24 consecutive days and 30 of the last 32 days. As of Friday, the rate dropped to single digits.
Florida, Mississippi, and Louisiana suffer from the highest infection rates per capita in the United States – 25% to 60% higher than the next highest, Tennessee. Rates in the three states exceed the rates of every large country (population of one million or more) worldwide except Georgia (the country). However, each state is already experiencing fewer new cases each day.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) asserts that the Delta wave has already crested nationwide. In its latest projection, published late Friday, IHME estimates that infections peaked on August 12. Further, it anticipated that infections would decline through October before stabilizing at half the current rate.
Of course, hospital admissions and patient census continue climbing for days or weeks after infections recede.
During the current surge, hospital Covid occupancy nationwide jumped from 5.5% to the current 30%. Hospitals in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia feel the most strain, with Covid patients occupying 81%, 72%, and 78% of all inpatient beds, respectively. Nevada, Oklahoma, and Rhode Island devote half or more of inpatient beds to Covid patients. Still, half of all states devote fewer than one of every five beds to Covid patients.
IHME offers a mixed short-term outlook for Covid admissions and patient census but a more favorable long-term view. Florida’s admissions peaked on August 11 and its Covid census on August 17, according to the latest IHME model. Alabama’s admissions have already peaked; its patient census should peak later this week. Yet, Georgia’s admissions won’t peak for another week; its patient census won’t peak until September 4. At peak, IHME envisions every hospital bed in Georgia will be in use to treat Covid patients.
Nationwide, IHME expects Covid admissions will peak tomorrow and patient census by next Sunday.
Closing today, we look at trends in the mix of Covid patients by age. Recent media reports scream of a shortage of pediatric beds. These reports are concerning, with vaccines unavailable to children under twelve (and the start of the new school year).
CDC reports confirm that hospital admission rates for persons under 18 have risen nationwide in recent weeks. However, these rates remain lower than rates posted a year ago. Further, admission rates for children aged 5 to 11 have not demonstrated a corresponding increase and stay minimal. Indeed, these children are 10-15 times less likely to be admitted to a hospital with Covid than the general population.
Instead, the most notable change in rates is among senior citizens. Hospital admission rates for this population have declined in near lockstep with the pace of vaccinations in the United States.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.