January 24, 2022 – The Omicron wave receded somewhat last week in the United States, reversing course nearly as quickly as it had begun.
Reported new cases fell 12% for the week through Friday compared to the prior week. This 7-day new case rate peaked on January 13. Similarly, estimated infections tumbled 23% from its January 9 peak.
Experts (Covid19 Forecast Hub) estimate that new infections will plunge 40% before mid-February. (Note: this forecast predicted that new cases would rise last week; instead, cases declined.)
However, not all states and municipalities participated in last week’s improvement. New cases in Wisconsin, for example, spiked by 67% compared to the prior week. New cases in Idaho and Oklahoma surged by 50%.
Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York led the ebbing of the Omicron wave, with new cases receding 40% or more in each state last week. Large metropolitan areas in these states, including New York City, sparked the turnaround. New York City’s 7-day new case rate nose-dived 65% in the past eleven days.
Globally, Covid’s spread has yet to slow. New cases swelled last week in Japan, where new cases more than tripled in one week; in Czechia new cases more than doubled; and in Peru and Russia cases nearly doubled. New case rates per capita remained high in Argentina, Australia, the United States, and Western Europe.
Caregivers and healthcare facilities strained under Covid’s weight again last week, although a glimmer of improvement shone through. Patients with Covid occupied nearly half of all inpatient beds in the United States last week. In Connecticut, Delaware, Nevada, and New York, essentially every available bed hosted a Covid-infected patient. Further, this does not reflect the challenge of finding sufficient staff to deliver care to these patients.
Encouragingly, relief may be at hand. Hospital admissions with Covid declined each of the past five days. Patient census may be peaking in the United States as a result. Of the eight states with the most Covid patients – California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas account for nearly half of patients hospitalized with Covid – all except Texas admitted fewer Covid infected patients last week than the prior week.
Also, the seasonal flu tempered its impact recently. Flu visits declined for the second straight week, without reaching peak levels posted during many of the prior fifteen seasons (last year was unusually mild.)
Omicron overcame vaccine protection against infections better than the Delta variant. However, it proved no better at lessening the vaccines’ protection against severe infection and death. A fully vaccinated person was three times as likely to be infected in late December (Omicron wave) than during the peak of the Delta wave, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). However, this vaccinated individual benefited with a nearly 60% lower risk of death than during the Delta wave.
Further, vaccination cut the risk of infection in half during this Omicron wave.
By Mark Van Sumeren