By Mark Van Sumeren
February 21, 2022 – The Omicron wave subsided as quickly as it arrived in the United States. The current situation mirrors where we were before we knew Omicron as anything but the fifteenth letter in the Greek alphabet. Experts forecast an even brighter outlook.
New cases skyrocketed in Omicron’s early days. From mid-December to mid-January, these cases surged 500%. Now a month later, this surge has dissipated. Indeed, cases nationally have reached the lowest level seen since December 3.
Omicron waned across the country. Cases in all except five states have plunged 75% or more since their Omicron peak. Nineteen states posted declines exceeding 90%.
Maine appears to be the lone state yet to participate in Omicron’s waning. Case rates in this state exceed all others and have only eased slightly from the recent peak.
In six states, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, rates fell to five-to-six-month lows.
Experts predict this improvement to continue. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasts a further 50% new case decline in two weeks. An ensemble model from more than 50 international research organizations envisions a more modest 30% drop in the next three weeks.
Other Covid metrics show similar improvement. Test-positive rates, Covid admissions and patient days, and deaths with Covid each show a steep decline from Omicron peaks. (All figures represent 7-day averages):
- The test-positive rate fell by one-third in a week, to less than one-third of its Omicron peak. This rate reached its lowest level since December 19
- Covid admissions fell more than one-quarter last week, to one-third of its Omicron peak. This rate reached its lowest level since December 10
- Covid patient days fell by one-quarter last week, to one-half of its Omicron peak. This rate reached its lowest level since December 28
- Deaths with Covid fell 15% last week, to one-quarter its Omicron peak. This rate reached its lowest level since January 11
IHME anticipates that Covid admissions and patient days will be half their current levels within two weeks.
The ensemble model foresees that deaths will decline 30% within three weeks.