December 27, 2021 – Let’s address the bad news first.
The Omicron variant exploded across the United States last week. Newly reported cases each day, Tuesday through Friday, exceeded the cases reported on any previous day during the pandemic. All indicators point to higher counts this week.
At the same time, access to Covid tests – both rapid and PCR – is elusive. Actual infections likely outpace reported cases by a significant margin. The test-positive rate hints at this gap: this rate spiked over the past two weeks, coinciding with the Omicron outbreak and the testing supply shortfall.
A team of public health scientists from Harvard, Stanford, and Yale Universities strives to estimate these actual infections. Their model estimates actual infections could be four times higher than reported. Worse, these estimated daily infections pushed 40% higher than their peak during the Delta wave.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) paints an ominous view of what to expect over the next month. IHME suspended its popular Covid forecast model for a month, as it worked to incorporate the Omicron effect. Last week, IHME finally released a new forecast.
In IHME’s modeling, infections are another 65% higher than the Harvard/Stanford/Yale model – a sobering 1.3 million per day. Infections will double in the next month, according to the IHME model. The Omicron wave peaks on January 27 in their modeling.
Now, let’s explore some encouraging news.
Eric Topol, MD (@Eric Topol) tweeted yesterday about the lessened severity of the Omicron variant. Three independent scientific studies concluded that Omicron does not infect the lungs nearly as much as the Delta variant. The findings suggest that Omicron does not bind to lung cells. The result is lowered severity, fewer hospitalizations, and less risk of death.
How about some real-time evidence?
The chart below illustrates the newly reported case and hospital admission rates in the United States (both on a 7-day average, per million population.) During the Delta wave, these measures moved in lockstep. However, thus far in the Omicron wave, the measures are already diverging – cases are spiking, yet admissions are not keeping pace.
(Note: we plotted these measures on different scales. Nonetheless, the scales are proportional to avoid distorting the change rates in the two measures.)
This divergence in case and admission trends under Omicron repeats itself in hard-hit countries and U.S. states:
Should these trends continue, Omicron will stress U.S. hospitals and medical personnel further than already experienced. However, the stress should be contained by Omicron’s lower severity.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the healthcare industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.