By Mark Van Sumeren
February 14, 2022 – Omicron struck the United States far differently than prior variants. Compared to its predecessors, Omicron punched harder and faster but with sharply lower severity. Now, this wave fades with each passing day, brightening the outlook ahead.
Omicron proved capable of evading protection from both vaccination and prior infection. As a result, infection rates soared higher than experienced earlier in the two-year-old pandemic. At its peak, the infection rate surged to five times the previous high seen in the United States. Moreover, it reached this peak a month within a month of its onset. By contrast, the Delta-peak arrived two months post-nadir; and the Alpha wave peaked one hundred days after its prior bottom.
Nonetheless, Omicron’s severity fell short of the Alpha and Delta variants. (We will leave it to the epidemiologists to judge whether Omicron was weaker than earlier variants or, resistance from prior infection or inoculation improved our immunity.)
Indeed, hospitalizations and deaths rose sharply during the Omicron wave. The sheer number of new cases drove these increases. Fortunately, lower severity prevented these hospitalizations and deaths from reaching devastating levels.
The United States suffered at least twelve deaths for every 1,000 new cases each week during the Alpha and Delta surges. This rate plunged to three deaths for every 1,000 cases during the Omicron surge.
Hospitalizations followed a similar, albeit muted pattern. Hospitals admitted twice as many patients for every 1,000 new cases during the Alpha and Delta surges as during the Omicron surge.
Recent Trends and Outlook
New Covid cases fell sharply last week in the United States. After peaking in mid-January, new cases have plunged 75%. New cases last week reached the lowest point seen in nearly two months.
The latest ensemble forecast envisions cases falling another 60% in the next three weeks.
Covid admissions sank 50% across the United States since mid-January. New York hospitals experienced a 75% drop, while Ohio and Pennsylvania hospitals saw 66% and 64% declines.
Nationwide, the Covid patient census has dropped nearly 40% already since mid-January.
Deaths with Covid remain too high but receded in the last two weeks. The number of fatalities has dipped by nearly 20% already since peaking at the end of January. These deaths represent the lowest level seen in a month.
The ensemble forecast predicts another 25% drop in deaths in the next three weeks.