December 6, 2021 – Uncertainty reigns with the impact of the Omicron variant. Early reports from outside the United States suggest a rapidly spreading virus but low severity. Vaccines, notably boosters, seem to be limiting severe infections. Still, it’s too early to be sure.
In the United States, Omicron’s emergence comes at a precarious time. New cases, as well as estimated infections, rose throughout November. (Reporting limitations during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend gave an illusion of declining cases.) As of Friday, new daily cases reached a five-week high.
Particularly unfortunate with Omicron’s arrival, the United States may have been on the precipice of receding new infections. The ensemble Covid forecast from Harvard, Stanford, and Yale scientists predicted declining cases for the upcoming month. However, this forecast pre-dated Omicron’s discovery.
Increased cases in the past month drove both admissions and hospital census higher. Michigan hospitals strained more than other states, with Covid patients occupying two of every five beds. The Covid census in Michigan spiked 40% in the past two weeks alone. Across the country, the Covid census spiked 18% in these two weeks.
Hospitals in the Southeast face lower stress from Covid patients at this time than hospitals elsewhere in the country.
The rising Covid census comes at the beginning of peak flu season, further exacerbating the Hospital crunch. Flu visits are already running ahead of all except two of the past fifteen flu seasons. If this season mirrors prior ones, flu visits will not peak for another month or two.
In the aftermath of rising new cases, Covid-related deaths will likely increase for the next several weeks. Indeed, the ensemble forecast predicted such an increase, even before Omicron emerged. Deaths had declined for several weeks before the Thanksgiving holiday.
All this places greater importance on vaccinations, notably boosters. Ninety-six million Americans remain unvaccinated. Twenty million – those under five years old – don’t qualify. Another twenty-four million, aged 5-to-11, are newly eligible. (One-in-five of these grade school children received an initial dose in the first month of eligibility.)
Nearly half of the unvaccinated cohort are working-age adults. Conversely, fewer than 60,000 senior citizens are unvaccinated. Half of the senior citizens are double vaccinated (without a booster yet), and four in ten have received their booster shot.
Perhaps it is not surprising then that the current infection rate for 30-to-39-year-olds is nearly twice that of 65-to-74-year-olds.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.