August 30, 2021 – Today marks a new school year for many parts of the country. Given that, how are school-aged kids faring with key Covid numbers?
Let’s start with vaccines available to students 12 and older but not to those under 11 years of age. 52% of the 25 million eligible students have received at least one shot. 40% of these students have completed their vaccinations.
But, what about those under 12 years old? Over the weekend, Dr. Anthony Fauci said he now believes that the FDA will consider approval for these students by late September or early October. That’s good news, albeit later than needed for the start of the school year.
Lacking vaccines (or, in the case of 12 to 17-year-olds, only gaining access in May), the Covid case rate per capita now exceeds that for senior citizens. Nevertheless, rates for both age cohorts are lower than for most other age groups.
Fortunately, the case rate for school-aged children, preschoolers, and infants does not translate to significant hospital admission or death rates. According to the most recent CDC data, persons in these age groups are four to eight times less likely to be hospitalized with Covid than persons 18 to 49 years of age (and seven to fourteen times less likely than persons 60 to 64.)
Further, deaths with Covid among school-aged, preschool and infants remain relatively rare (fewer than 0.05 per 100,000 per week.)
Infections from the Delta variant are straining our nation’s hospitals and healthcare professionals. A Covid-19 patient occupies an estimated 37% of all inpatient beds nationwide.
Covid patients in Florida and Georgia occupy more than 80% of all beds.
In eleven other states – Alabama, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Nevada, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Texas – Covid patients take up more than half the available beds.
Two states – South Dakota and Vermont – devote fewer than one in ten beds for Covid patients.
Twelve other states use fewer than one of every five beds for these patients – Colorado, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Wyoming.
Fortunately, there seems to be some relief on the horizon. The latest CDC data suggests that Covid hospital admissions may have peaked over the weekend. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) concurs: IHME says admissions peaked on Saturday, and the Covid census will peak nationwide today.
Unfortunately, this relief will not include Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, or Rhode Island in the short term. IHME forecasts a rising Covid census in each of these states for at least the next two weeks.
In Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, and Rhode Island, Covid patients could outnumber the available beds within two weeks.
Notably, IHME predicts a steep decline in Covid occupancy in Florida hospitals in the next two weeks.
Behind this overall reduction in hospital rates, data from several sources suggest that the Delta wave is at or near cresting. According to the CDC, the 7-day average new case rates were flat for five days, from August 22 to August 26 (the latest data available when we prepared our analysis).
Models produced by IHME and a collaborative from Harvard, Stanford, and Yale public health officials suggest the crest has already occurred. Using estimates of actual infections (rather than reported cases), the IHME model offers that the crest happened on August 16. The Harvard/Stanford/Yale model points to August 26 as the crest date.
Of note, both models use presumed infection dates in their models. Case reports typically lag the infection date due to delays in reporting and the lags between exposure, infection, and detection. Thus, these models should identify the crest sooner than the CDC and other sources.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.