By Mark Van Sumeren
April 25, 2022 – Asia-Pacific and Europe have been at the epicenter of the Covid pandemic since the Omicron variant began circulating in late Fall 2021. However, cases in these countries fell in recent weeks, suggesting that the virus is receding in these countries. In contrast, cases rose across the United States. Rates remain highest in the Northeast states but increased in most states. Still, the severity of these cases seems low, with hospitalization and death rates remaining below levels observed for most of the past year.
Here are some of the highlights of the current Covid situation in the United States and globally:
Booster shots in the United States crossed the 100 million dose threshold last week.
The U.S. ranks 6th globally, with just over 500,000 daily doses administered last week; China, India, and Indonesia averaged more than 1 million each day. The U.S. ranks 71st globally in the percent of the population that has been boosted (29.7%) and 55th in percent fully vaccinated (68.4%).
The United States is one of only four of the thirty largest countries reporting an effective reproduction rate (Rt) greater than 1.0.
China, India, and South Africa join the U.S. in this dubious distinction. Rt measures how many people an infected person will infect. Thus, an Rt greater than 1.0 reflects a spreading virus.
Reported Covid cases plunged worldwide last week (-23%) yet rose in the United States (+15%).
By continent, cases fell in Asia (-33%), Europe (-22%), Oceana (-10%), and South America (-30%); cases rose in Africa (+12%) and North America (+12%). By country, Taiwan outpaced the rest of the world, with new cases nearly tripling in the last week; Cases in India more than doubled, and nearly doubled in South Africa. By state, cases more than doubled in Indiana last week and nearly doubled in West Virginia. In all, cases increased in forty-two of the fifty states. Notably, New York cases rose merely 1% last week.
According to the CDC’s Community Transmission index, virus transmission in one-third of U.S. counties ranks as “High” or “Substantial,” including every county in the Northeast.
Nonetheless, the CDC rates only forty counties (1.24%) as “High” in its Community Level index, considering hospital impact and transmission rates. Most New York counties rate “High” or “Medium.”
Asia-Pacific and European nations continue to post the highest case rates of the largest countries.
South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand posted the three highest rates last week. Finland, France, Germany, Portugal, Italy, Austria, and Greece rounded out the top ten. However, only Finland among these ten reported an increase in the case rate from the previous week. The Northeast endured the highest case rates in the U.S. last week. Vermont, New York, and Rhode Island led all states. Massachusetts ranked fifth, Connecticut seventh, New Jersey eighth, and New Hampshire ninth.
Hospitalization rates with Covid remain relatively low in this country.
Admissions with Covid increased 9% last week, while Covid patient census rose less than 1%. Still, both measures remain near pandemic-low levels. Only New York devotes one of every ten inpatient beds to the care of Covid patients. Nationally, Covid patients occupy one of every thirty-one inpatient beds.
Hospitalization correlates with infection rates. However, hospitalization rates have declined thus far while Omicron is circulating from levels recorded with earlier variants.
We performed a statistical analysis of hospital Covid admissions and reported case rates from August 1, 2020 to April 19, 2022. The correlation proved statistically significant (R2 = 0.746, p-value=1.24E-10). However, we discovered a stronger correlation when we isolated the Omicron-circulation period (November 1, 2021 – April 1, 2022) from prior infection waves (October 1, 2020 – March 15, 2021; July 1, 2021 – October 31, 2021). During each period, the correlation between Covid admissions and case rates strengthened (R2 > 0.93, p-value > 1.94E-90 in each case).
Notably, admissions per case plunged with Omicron circulating compared with prior periods. Indeed, a person infected with Covid was nearly three times more likely to require hospital admission in the Summer/Fall of 2021 than in the Winter of 2021-2. An infected person was 2.5 times more likely to be admitted in the Fall/Winter 2020-1 than if infected during the most recent period.
Expert models predict that cases in the United States will rise for at least the next three weeks, albeit rather slowly. However, these same models anticipate that deaths with Covid will continue falling. Hopefully, the relatively low rate of infected patients requiring hospitalization continues, keeping our hospitals and clinical staff available to treat other ailments, conditions, diseases, and injuries.