August 9, 2021 – The number of new COVID infections reported in the United States each day continues to grow. However, the rate of case growth is slowing. Hard-hit Florida is setting the pace, with week-over-week case growth plunging from 109% to 20% in the last three-and-a-half weeks.
Nonetheless, the seven-week-old infection wave will drive hospitalization and death rates for several weeks to come.
Americans are taking note, as the vaccination rate increased 40% since this infection wave began. Vaccine supplies have increased, too, as the states received more than 4 million new doses Thursday and Friday.
Just over two weeks ago, new COVID cases were increasing by more than 60% week-over-week. Now, this rate is half that figure. Should this trend continue, we may see an end to the infection wave within weeks.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) offers an optimistic view. In its latest forecast, published on Friday, IHME showed new daily cases in the United States peaking this coming Sunday. Florida may have already peaked, according to IHME.
An end to this wave would indeed be welcome. Still, we know that its impact will linger. Hospital admissions track closely with infections but, inpatient stays continue for days or weeks after infections wane. Deaths with coronavirus do not peak until weeks after infection rates decline.
COVID-19 patients now occupy nearly one-in-five inpatient beds in the United States (18%), up sharply from 11% two weeks ago. This occupancy rate has now tripled in the last month. (By comparison, however, this rate spiked to 45% in January.)
Hospitals in Florida and Nevada face the most significant stress, with half (50%) of all inpatient beds in these states used in treating COVID patients. Two weeks ago, “only” one-third of Florida’s beds were devoted to COVID patients.
IHME latest forecast hints that hospital admissions will continue rising until August 26 – eleven days after the projected infection peak. Hospital census may not peak until September 3. By then, COVID occupancy is forecast to rise to 29% from the current 18%.
Deaths with COVID-19 are also rising and will continue to do so. The current 7-day average rate is approaching 500 per day, more than doubling in the past month. IHME expects this rate to double again, peaking just above 1,000 the second week in September. (This rate stood above 3,000 for most of January and early February.)
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.