June 2, 2021 – A special note of gratitude to all service members we lost, as their sacrifices ensured the freedoms we enjoy.
We find ourselves in a better place this Memorial Day weekend than a year ago. Aided by a robust vaccination effort, we share a sense of freedom missing from our lives last year. Yet, new Covid-19 cases detected last week were only modestly lower than at the same time a year ago. In retrospect, last Memorial Day served as a brief respite between the first and second infection waves. The massive third wave was well down the road. Coming out of this Memorial Day, we have reason to believe that we will not see a repeat of last year’s infection surges.
So, what was different this Memorial Day?
First, new Covid-19 cases detected each day are declining by 20% each week. A year ago, new cases were remaining consistent week-over-week.
Second, our testing protocol is improved. A year ago, we were detecting a new case with every sixteen tests performed. Today, we are conducting twice as many Covid-19 tests and discovering fewer new cases. It now requires forty tests to confirm a single new infection.
With this improved test efficiency, estimated actual infections are one-third lower now than a year ago (covidestim.org). As with newly detected cases, estimated infections are plunging this year more quickly than a year ago.
Third, vaccinations and prior infections provide more extensive immunity from the virus than was the case a year ago. At this time last year, no one had been vaccinated. Phase 3 clinical trials were months away. We had little clue about the vaccines’ effectiveness or when they would become available. Today, we have vaccinated three-quarters of senior citizens in the U.S. against the virus. Sixty-two percent of all adults have received at least one dose. And we know that the vaccines are nearly 100% effective in protecting against severe infections.
If we also consider immunity resulting from a prior infection, two-thirds of all Americans may have protection against the virus.
Fourth, our health system has advanced its ability to diagnose and treat Covid-19 infections since last Memorial Day. Fewer cases wind up in the hospital. Even those hospitalized are less likely to require mechanical ventilation or intensive care.
However, the strongest indicator of our progress is the decline in deaths with coronavirus. Despite similar numbers of new cases, there were two-and-one-half times fewer deaths last week than during the week preceding last Memorial Day.
As we celebrated this Memorial Day, all Covid-19 Vital Signs are at levels as good or better than at any time since March 2020.
Of course, the virus still lurks. Some experts predict a renewed infection rate later this summer. Still, this country’s high vaccination rate should constrain any resurgence. New infections should mostly be among the unvaccinated and should not rise to a new “wave” level. Indeed, those experts suggesting an increase in new infections later this summer do not envision them returning by September to today’s numbers. They also do not anticipate a concomitant rise in hospitalizations and deaths.
Globally, a weak vaccination rollout means the virus can continue spreading. It also means that many countries will be unwilling or unable to open their borders any time soon.
This Memorial Day, we appreciate the freedoms afforded to us.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.