March 22, 2021 – How soon will we feel comfortable doing everyday things?
Jim never missed a Marshall Tucker Band concert at Pine Knob Music Theater while attending the University of Michigan. An aspiring guitarist himself, he nicknamed his ragtag college band, comprised chiefly of fraternity brothers, “MTB.” In theory, the name came from the initials of another band member. Jim knew it was an homage to the beloved country rockers from Spartanburg, South Carolina.
Never losing his youthful enthusiasm or engaging nature, Jim and his college sweetheart, Jenny, have maintained an active lifestyle in the intervening forty-some years. Befitting his outgoing personality, Jim counts dozens of his high school and college pals among his closest friends. His earlier passion for Marshall Tucker is now devoted to the Chicago Cubs baseball team and the University of Michigan Wolverines football team. And to the couple’s two full-grown children.
Now in their early 60’s, Jim and Jenny ache for a return to the lifestyle they enjoyed together – a lifestyle that the Covid-19 pandemic ripped from them more than a year ago. No afternoon baseball games in the right-field seats at Wrigley Field. No fraternity reunion tailgates outside the massive Michigan Stadium. No jam sessions or beer gatherings with the guys. And no wedding for Jim and Jenny’s daughter, Mandy. Covid canceled her nuptials not only last August but also a second time this summer.
For all the controversy about state-imposed mandates and re-openings, however, Jim’s hermit lifestyle is self-imposed. Illinois Governor, J. B. Pritzker, could allow more than 8,274 fans in the 41,649-seat Wrigley Field and more than 50 people to attend an indoor wedding reception. Jim would still not attend a Cubs game in person. Nor would he feel comfortable hosting his many friends at his daughter’s wedding – yet.
Being in a high-risk age group, Jim exhibits self-survival behavior when it comes to the virus. He even avoided touchless, curbside grocery pick-up until very recently.
So, when will people like Jim, Jenny, and countless others feel safe to attend outdoor events, indoor receptions, or even a nice restaurant??
Concerns surfaced this week about a sudden pause in the decline of new case rates in the U.S., particularly as case rates rise across much of Europe. We are in a race between variants and vaccinations, as we attempt to outrun the spread of the coronavirus’s more transmissible variants.
Case rates rose sharply during the past two weeks in Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, and Turkey. These rates fell during this time in Czechia, Israel, the United Kingdom and, the United States. What characteristics did the countries with rising rates share in common? What elements did Czechia, Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States share?
Protection against the coronavirus arises both from inoculation and natural immunity. Reports from Israel underpin the argument for vaccination, as case rates, hospitalizations, and deaths are plunging in that country – particularly among the elderly. Israel has one of the highest per capita vaccination rates in the world.
Evidence mounts as well that prior infections provide substantial and long-lasting protection through antibodies and T-cells. Reinfection rates have been rare and relatively mild when they occur.
The countries listed above with rising case rates share at least two characteristics: each has relatively low vaccination rates and infection prevalence. None of these countries have established significant immune protection from the virus.
In sharp contrast, Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States share the characteristics of having vaccination rates and infection prevalence among the world’s highest. In each case, these measures are materially higher than levels in the countries experiencing rising case rates. While having a pedestrian vaccination rate, Czechia has one of the world’s highest infection prevalence rates.
The U.S. vaccination pace surged again this week, with an average of 2.5 million jabs each day. 121 million vaccines have been administered in this country, and 42.7 million Americans are fully inoculated (16.7% of the adult population.) When considered with those previously infected, nearly half of all Americans may have immunity protection (based on infection estimates from covidestim.org, vaccine efficacy, and a two-week lag from infection or vaccination to immunity.)
Among the most severe consequences of a Covid-19 infection are hospitalizations and deaths. Rates for both outcomes dropped further last week, continuing patterns that began weeks ago. Covid-19 patient days declined 8% last week and have dropped by more than half in the previous five weeks. Reports this week showed that rates among older persons had fallen more sharply than the general population, likely reflecting the emphasis on vaccinating at-risk people.
Deaths with coronavirus declined for the seventh time in the last nine weeks, falling to only one-third of the mid-January peak.
The outlook for the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States is encouraging. Based on the latest estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), new infections will decline 2.5% per day through July 1st. By May 1st, IHME expects new infections will be lower than at any time since the first week of March 2020. (WHO declared Covid-19 a pandemic on March 11th, 2020.) Last March, infections were doubling every day, a stark contrast to the current infection declines.
IHME predicts that the Covid-19 hospital census will decline an average of 1.4% each day through July 1st. By May 1st, IHME anticipates that the Covid-19 census will be lower than at any time since the third week of March 2020.
Daily deaths should decline an average of 1.2% through July 1st, according to the latest IHME projection. By May 1st, daily deaths should be lower than at any time since the end of March 2020.
In concert with these declining metrics, an estimated 60% of Americans will enjoy immunity protection from Covid-19, mostly from inoculation and partly from a prior infection.
So, the question stands: when will Jim, Jenny, and millions of Americans feel safe to resume normal activities? Infections, hospitalizations, and deaths will be nearing pre-pandemic levels in the United States in less than six weeks; these continue to drop through the first day of summer.
Memorial Day BBQ, anyone? Fourth of July?
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.