May 17, 2021 – The United States reached a milestone in the COVID-19 pandemic on Thursday, when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) relaxed restrictions on vaccinated persons. Subject to state and local rules, anyone two weeks post-vaccination can resume normal activities. Certain places still require masks, including airlines and airports, and public transportation.
The updated guidance confirms that vaccinated persons are at low risk of severe infection or transmission of the virus.
This milestone came 429 days after then-President Trump declared COVID-19 a national emergency.
There have been two other milestone dates on our journey to independence from the coronavirus pandemic. The first occurred on December 11, 2020. On that date, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) to Pfizer/BioNTech for its vaccine. For the first time since March 2020, many of us believed we were closer to the end of the crisis than the beginning.
For me, the second milestone occurred on March 5 of this year. On that date, my wife and I made a 90-minute round trip to Ohio for our single shots of the JNJ/Janssen vaccine. Our sense of relief that day was palpable. Many others report a similar experience after receiving their vaccines.
The new CDC guidance already has had an impact. Most states and many businesses are updating their restrictions on businesses and individuals.
- Michigan, long one of the most restrictive states, announced that its mask mandate would end on July 1.
- The PGA is hosting its 103rd national golf championship at the famed Ocean Course on Kiawah Island, South Carolina, this week. On Friday the PGA announced that spectators would no longer need to wear masks on the course.
- The Milwaukee Brewers announced its stadium would open to 100% capacity by June 25. Two days before the CDC announcement, the Brewers increased capacity from 25% to 50%.
- Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, said Thursday that schools could reopen this fall, in-person and full-time.
Additionally, the FDA this week granted Pfizer/BioNTech an EUA for its vaccine for 12- to 15-year-olds. The Pfizer vaccine is the only vaccine in the U.S. approved for persons 12 to 17 years old.
These changes come as we witness remarkable progress in containing the virus spread in the United States. Moreover, our efforts are limiting the severe outcomes of infections, especially hospitalizations and deaths.
We have pictured below a time sequence of the virus spread in the United States. The maps correspond with the seven-day peak cases for the presumed four waves in the United States.
The initial wave peaked on April 10, 2020.
Two items jump out from the first map. First, Connecticut, Louisiana, New Jersey, and New York bore the brunt of the initial wave. Second, the spread did not register as intense as later waves. This likely reflects inadequate testing more so than a mild wave.
The second wave peaked on July 25, 2020. The virus had spread across the country but hit the South hardest.
The third wave was by many accounts the most intense of the pandemic. Of note, the virus was relentless throughout the country. This wave peaked on January 11.
The fourth wave may not qualify as an actual wave. It was short-lived and concentrated in a single state, Michigan.
Contrast these four maps with our current situation. Infection rates are declining in all but a few localities. Overall, cases have plunged to the lowest level seen in eleven months. Michigan, which had the highest infection rate among all states for 46 straight days, has led the decline. Its cases dropped to one-fourth of what they were a month and a half ago.
Throughout the pandemic, we have argued that case rates are not the best measure of the virus’s impact. During periods during which the virus was spreading, testing could not keep pace. Unreported infections likely grew faster than detected cases.
Secondly, our healthcare professionals became better at diagnosing and treating COVID-19 infections. Outcomes, including both hospitalizations and deaths, improved. Recall that the impetus for the national emergency declaration and subsequent restrictions was to save lives and protect the overburdened healthcare system.
So, let’s compare hospitalization rates for the four waves to our current experience. During the peak of the first wave, the threat to the health care system was evident. Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey hospitals faced an existential crisis, as COVID-19 patients outnumbered inpatient beds. This problem rippled across the country. Ventilators and personal protective equipment (PPE) were in short supply everywhere.
The second wave had an impact on the health care system too. Still, this impact did not match the intensity of the case spread. The health care system was better prepared to diagnose and treat COVID-19 patients in July than in March.
The third wave posed the second existential crisis on the health care system. The hospital crisis was most critical in Arizona, California, Georgia, and Nevada (and to a lesser extent in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York).
Our current situation illustrates how far the demands on our healthcare system have fallen. No state now requires more than three of every ten beds to treat Covid-19 patients. Across the country, about one in every ten beds are necessary to treat COVID-19 patients.
The purest illustration of how far the U.S. has progressed against the virus is seen in the weekly death rate. In January, as many people perished every day with COVID-19 as do in a week now. There were fewer deaths in the last week than any seven days since July 8, 2020. Moreover, except for two weeks spanning the Fourth of July, fewer people die with COVID-19 now than any time since March 2020.
Our progress in containing COVID-19 allowed the CDC to ease restrictions on those people already vaccinated. While the virus remains in our midst, the risk for vaccinated persons is low. More than ever, younger unvaccinated persons are the plurality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The strain on our healthcare system has been diminished but not eliminated.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.