February 15, 2021 – The U.S. has crawled from the abyss of November and December’s surging COVID-19 cases. It took 65 days, beginning November 5, for infections to spike by 2.4x and only 37 days to reverse it.
An ensemble forecast predicts that cases, hospitalizations, and deaths nosedive in the coming weeks. That this turnaround overcame holiday gatherings, seasonal trends, and emerging variants is remarkable.
We have not returned to safety: infections, hospitalizations, and deaths remain too high. However, these trends encourage hope, and an improving vaccine picture provides optimism.
Health Industry Advisor LLC’s upcoming COVID-19 Vital Signs report, scheduled for Wednesday, will illustrate several possibilities for reaching herd immunity or relative normalcy, using assumptions of vaccine availability, infection prevalence, emerging variants, and vaccine hesitancy.
Several developments highlight the past week:
- Vaccines: The U.S. jabbed nearly 1.7 million people per day last week, up from 1.3-1.4 million each of the prior two weeks. Second doses took priority, with 4.6 million people getting a second dose, compared to 3.1 million a week earlier;
- Testing: Test-positivity improved for the fourth straight week and is better than at any time since mid-October;
- Infections: New cases shrank for the fifth consecutive week; Weekly new cases nosedived 250% since January 2-8;
- Recoveries: Recoveries outpaced new cases last week, the first time this happened since September 12-18;
- Hospital Demand: COVID-19 hospital occupancy dropped to 25%, from 41% in early-January. Occupancy should decline further in the next few weeks, as inpatient stays catch-up with declining new cases;
- Deaths fell sharply week-over-week; Fewer deaths were recorded last week than during each of the prior five weeks.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.