March 8, 2021 – The nurse smiled broadly when asked how she felt about saving lives that day. She was one of a dozen nurses administering COVID-19 vaccines to hundreds of people in the Lucas County (OH) Recreational Center Friday afternoon.
Like countless other venues across the country, the Center was pressed into service last week as a mass vaccination center. Hundreds of people 60 years and older trekked to the Center that day, most for Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen vaccine, a few for their second jab of Pfizer’s.
Those fortunate to gain an appointment shared an unspoken thought – they had taken a giant stride toward regaining a degree of normalcy in their lives.
Normalcy. Something unseen since March 2020. A vague concept and not yet within our grasp. But, closer. Close enough that the narrative shifted this week. Instead of warning of a long, dark winter, the debate pivoted to when it is safe to re-open our states, our restaurants, our schools, and our lives.
What sparked this change in our nation’s collective mood?
2.6 million.
That’s how many people were vaccinated on average each of the past three days. With vaccination centers popping up across the country and vaccine supplies building, appointments are now in reach for more of us. Confidence grows that our turn is a few short months, if not weeks or days away.
As of Sunday afternoon, nearly one-in-four adults had already received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine; half of those have received two doses. According to Scott Gottlieb, MD, former FDA head, 70% of those over 75 years old will be vaccinated by the end of this week, as will 60% of those 65 or older. President Biden pledged last week that enough vaccines would be available by the end of May to vaccinate every U.S. adult.
Even before the protection afforded by these vaccines takes full effect, Covid-19’s most devastating effects are already in retreat. Just six weeks ago, we lost someone to Covid-19 every twenty-five minutes in the United States; by last week, deaths were half what they were then. In early January, Covid-19 inpatients would not fit inside the University of Michigan Stadium, the country’s largest athletic facility.
As of yesterday, these patients would fit inside Kelly Shorts Stadium at Central Michigan University, with 1000s of seats to spare. According to a forecast model published last Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Covid-19 hospital admissions should plunge another 27% in the next three weeks.
So, when does normalcy return? Dr. Anthony Fauci weighed in to suggest that new daily cases would need to fall to 5,000 or 10,000. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) latest projection says this could occur before the end of May. Dr. Ashish Jha, Dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, tweeted that public health restrictions could be lifted after high-risk persons were vaccinated – likely mid-April.
Mid-April or the end of May? After a year of suffering, four-to-ten weeks seems within reach, especially if we can get that vaccine appointment.
Contributing writer:
Mark A. Van Sumeren, strategic advisor, Medical Devices & Integrated Delivery Networks
Health Industry Advisor LLC, provides a regular report on COVID-19 numbers for the health care industry.
For more information, or to sign up for the report, contact Mark at Mark.VanSumeren@HealthIndustryAdvisor.com; or visit www.HealthIndustryAdvisor.com.